The contribution of demand forecast by the Box-Jenkins method on making the production plan process Study case: High plateaus Grains Branch / SPA
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Date
2023-06
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Publisher
Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales
Abstract
The production planning process is the Brain and the central of orders in the Supply Chain
Management with an objective of meeting the predicted market demand with the production
and logistic disponible resources. And that can be applicable only by using an accurate sales
forecast with a minimum percentage error.
The objective of this thesis is to find out what are the potential benefices of implementing
the Box-Jenkins forecasting method on making the production planning process.
In order to do that, an experience has been made within the Upper Plateaus Cereals Branch
located in Setif city belongs to the Agro-div Group. Which consist on making the sales forecast
based on this time series method, showing the percentage of accuracy and using the results to
establish a Production plan. This last one will be subject of comparison between two different
scenarios possible representing by The Sales and Operation plan. The first one with constant
production and hiring option, and the second one with constant production and extra hours
option.
The results shows that the Box-Jenkins forecasting method shows a high level of accuracy
and it can be used to elaborate the two production plans, these last ones had been compared and
we have concluded that the Sales and operation planning with a constant production and hiring
option is the best scenario that the company can apply. It can be justified by its low cost.
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Keywords
Production plan process, Sales forecast, Box-Jenkins method, Accuracy of predictions, Sales and operation plan