Distribution et Management de la Chaîne Logistique

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Browsing Distribution et Management de la Chaîne Logistique by Subject "Accuracy of predictions"

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    The contribution of demand forecast by the Box-Jenkins method on making the production plan process Study case: High plateaus Grains Branch / SPA
    (Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, 2023-06) AKNOUCHE, Sami
    The production planning process is the Brain and the central of orders in the Supply Chain Management with an objective of meeting the predicted market demand with the production and logistic disponible resources. And that can be applicable only by using an accurate sales forecast with a minimum percentage error. The objective of this thesis is to find out what are the potential benefices of implementing the Box-Jenkins forecasting method on making the production planning process. In order to do that, an experience has been made within the Upper Plateaus Cereals Branch located in Setif city belongs to the Agro-div Group. Which consist on making the sales forecast based on this time series method, showing the percentage of accuracy and using the results to establish a Production plan. This last one will be subject of comparison between two different scenarios possible representing by The Sales and Operation plan. The first one with constant production and hiring option, and the second one with constant production and extra hours option. The results shows that the Box-Jenkins forecasting method shows a high level of accuracy and it can be used to elaborate the two production plans, these last ones had been compared and we have concluded that the Sales and operation planning with a constant production and hiring option is the best scenario that the company can apply. It can be justified by its low cost.